How Individuals Can Win in a Complex World — Part I

Previously I have discussed ‘Lessons for Winning in the Networked Age’, using learning from the military strategist John Boyd to help organisations think about their orientation, decisions and actions in an age of rapidly evolving connection. Now I describe how individuals can apply those lessons to win in this complex world.

Our normal mode of thinking is linear. Linear thinking works in simple situations. However, it can work against us if we use it in complex environments. Increasingly we live in a complex environment, a networked age requiring different thinking to succeed.

I’ve broken this article into three parts. Part I explores the complex nature of the new environment and how our normal thinking can work against us. Part II looks at how we should orientate to understand this new world. Part III expands on how to practically apply this thinking to win in any situation. Parts II and III will come out over the next few weeks.

Part I — The Context is now Complex

John Boyd studied the survival of societies. Warfare has always been complex and dynamic. From the ancient battlefields of Alexander the Great and Darius III, Hannibal Barca and Scipio Africanis through to the modern age of aerial combat and insurgencies, Boyd uncovered lessons that are universal. Equally, they apply outside of warfare to any situation of adversity.

In modern life, this approach can be applied whenever we have a situation working against us. We can do something about it. Whether we are competing against an enemy or an unfavourable set of circumstances we need a method, a process or a way of thinking that we can bring to bear on the situation. Ultimately life is about winning, whether you’re in an exam, a desert, a start-up, or a workplace.

The lessons for winning in dynamic circumstances are universal.

Human societies have evolved from simple or ‘linear’ situations where outcomes were fairly predictable, to a world now that is complex. Simple environments are characterised by ’cause and effect’ type relationships. These are easy to predict. In earlier times, a fire meant survival, bigger humans were more dangerous and larger tribes usually defeated smaller tribes. These were simple environments with conditions that allowed predictable outcomes. Do A and expect B.

But as societies evolved so did our social structures and technologies. The relationships between the ‘parts’ of our lives became more ‘complicated’. We needed more brainpower to calculate the effect of large political groupings in the Roman Senate or to calculate the engineering requirements needed to build an aqueduct across a country. Last century we developed Inertial Navigation Systems to get a human onto the moon and back to earth. These were complicated feats and required many difficult calculations and tests. But we could understand them by understanding each moving part and summing them to see the result we could expect. It was complicated and difficult but predictable.

However, we now live in a different world, a ‘complex’ world. As technology has evolved, instant communications and the internet have created networked data flows between anyone, anywhere in the world. This is new for us. The human race has never lived with this degree of complexity between so many interacting parts, people and technologies. Super Computers, Blockchains and Artificial Intelligence will change the nature of our lives and our experience like no other time. No longer can we accurately predict outcomes. There are so many moving parts in our societies that tiny differences in the input conditions can have massively different outcomes.

Complex situations involve many parts and similar inputs can have dramatically different outcomes.

At the extreme of complexity exists chaos. This is illustrated by ‘The Butterfly Effect’. This idea famously describes a butterfly flapping its wings in Africa that causes a hurricane in North America, through the interdependencies of a few molecules of air at the beginning of the complex chain of events. Yet the same wing-flap a second latter may have no effect at all. In a complex world a tiny change in one thing can have a huge and totally unpredictable effect.

But if small actions can have unpredictable outcomes, how can we understand situations and make decisions on how to act for a successful outcome?

Our skill at reading a situation accurately is a vital part of success.

We know that our ability to perceive a situation accurately is a vital part of success. The better that we can read a situation, the better the chance of success for us, be it in a job, a sale, a relationship, a game or a business. So how do we do this? Consciously or sub-consciously, we are all constantly developing our understanding of the situations we find ourselves in. We do this by building mental models of our circumstances, in our mind. This is an abstract way for us to structure how we see the world and it helps us to orientate to our environment. I will cover mental model generation in Parts II and III.

So we build mental models to help us live in societies and markets, and to interact in relationships that we need to predict. Yet things are unpredictable. We are in an age where a single spectator at a sports event could send out a message on Social Media, via their phone, that starts a riot that cascades to overthrow a government. Likewise, the same message may have no effect at all if picked up a few seconds later by a slightly different audience configuration.

The future is unknown, unknowable and constantly changing. Yet we have to understand it somehow, to survive and thrive.

Rare and unpredictable outcomes have become known as ‘Black Swan’ events. And it is worth remembering that while they can be negative, they can also be positive in outcome. But while most outcomes are not large, they can be unpredictable. Asking your boss for a raise, losing your main client, producing excellent results in a project, coming up with a good idea for your business, landing a big customer, losing your first contract or finding a house to buy — each of these events can have very unpredictable outcomes, either good or bad.

As we negotiate our way in this dynamic world we usually apply linear thinking. Yet this can dislocate anyone expecting a predictable result. In a world that now has the most advanced and rapidly evolving technology in history, why do we have a generation that earn less than their parents? Why have we not solved the problem of asset bubbles, house price inflation or homelessness? No longer is it easy to predict what education will get you a job or indeed what jobs will be around when you graduate. If you are a truckdriver, a forklift driver, a middle manager, an accountant or a Radiologist your job may not exist in the same way in ten years’ time. Within healthcare, our X-rays, scans and blood tests will be read by AI predictive programmes. New technologies will change the nature of our current workplaces and the types of jobs we do.

But how can we predict what those new jobs will look like or what skills we should arm ourselves with to maximise our value to the market? Blockchain technology is leading the rise of digital currencies. We may even see the US dollar fade from its position as the global reserve currency. Worldwide, real estate price levels are high and hard to predict. Companies are changing in size and dominance as technology reshapes the economy.

Outcomes from our actions are hard to predict. For us as individuals trying to earn a living, it is more difficult to select a career path today in an organisation that may not exist in five years’ time. Between 2009 and 2019 the top five global companies completely changed. They are now exclusively tech giants. We are now dominated by digital organisations that rival nation states.

So, what can you do as an individual? How can you apply ancient military strategy from Hannibal Barca or Alexander the Great to your life and maximise your survivability?

To summarise Part I of this set of three articles, here’s the first rule. Linear thinking can be used for some aspects of modern life. But many situations are dynamic. Do not rely on linear thinking for non-linear problems. By developing a mindset that understands the different environment we are now in we can all become more resilient. And resilience will prevent us from being surprised when the outcome we expected does not materialise. Critically, don’t be surprised when this happens and don’t get disrupted. Expect the unexpected. We all need to become anti-fragile and develop ourselves to become Shapeshifters.

In Parts II and III — I will show you how to build these vital skills so that you can be dangerous to your adversaries in any situation.

Kris Vette is an Emerging Technology Strategist. He runs Chain Ecosystems, a consultancy that enables organisations to both understand and posture themselves for success in the age of networks.