How can we apply ourselves to a world of unpredictability?

How Individuals Can Win in a Complex World — Part III

Kris Vette
6 min readDec 5, 2019

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Part I gave an understanding of the complexity of the world, technology and social constructs that surround us. Part II explored how we must avoid indepth planning if we are in dynamic settings. Part III is about practical application. It discusses how we can apply ourselves into the real world where outcomes are not predictable.

We live in a world of complexity yet we also encounter many simple and predictable tasks every day. So, in reality we are moving in and out of complexity all the time. In a world like this, success can be random. How do we survive and thrive in such a world?

Obviously, we are, each and every one of us, confronted with many situations in many settings, so there is a fair amount of generalisation in this article. I am focusing on startups and business situations but these thoughts equally apply to personal and social situations. The concepts require development of individual approaches and methods. The point is to know that we are always in a changing dynamic. Everything is always changing. Nothing remains the same. Grasping that we are in a dynamic is vital. Whatever judgements we make, we need to be mindful that our life, our social dynamic and our work situation is always changing. We can play with it, adapt and shapeshift and the more we can test it the more we can see new angles and let chance play its hand.

Much failure precedes success. Both of them, failure and success, are in many ways one and the same. And that’s hard to grasp when you’re just experiencing ‘failure’ after failure or ‘unexpected outcome’ after unexpected outcome.

So, we need a way to keep that dynamic construct always in mind, to be curious about it rather than judgmental about ourselves or our situation. We could do that with a daily mindfulness exercise, a daily writing or just a simple phrase in front of our computer. But we need something to stimulate our curiosity about the changing dynamic that we are in. And to remember always that we are in a dynamic, a state of flux.

The principles I discuss are not fixed but more like themes or a mindset to build on. You can develop your own principles. However, if I can reduce the concept to a few words it could be this;

“All success or survival is based on using action as our tool to develop our understanding of our physical, social and technological environment (our mental model). Our next action and our next understanding, done in a continuous manner, is the method we use. We are, in every moment evolving and so is our environment, moment by moment. So, our action and learning must never stop and if not working, we must continue trying new approaches and new angles. The emphasis must be on continuous and new action”.

So, how do we do that in reality?

First, in all situations it is important to have a purpose, to know what the goal is, even if the path to achievement is not clear. In important matters we should not be changing that overall purpose too often. It is unlikely that the path will be clear, so the purpose must be.

Second, and this is the essence, action is the crucial part. Theory is developed from action, and planning is developed from action, not the other way around. Trial and error is everything.

Third, the action and learning and re-orientation and action again, must be continuous. It need not be big or life-changing but it must be continuous. We must use our action to learn. It is even better if the outcome turns out to not be what was expected, as that is how we uncover and ‘feel out’ reality. Each action and its result should be our teacher. If we can do this in iterations or steps that feedback into our understanding, we can evolve as the context, the environment, the social dynamic and forces around us evolve. We must become shapeshifters.

When we try action, it is worth trying a new action or perhaps a new angle. The ancient Chinese philosophy or ‘Tao’ talks of different approaches, of Cheng and Ch’i. Loosely translated Cheng and Ch’i mean Orthodox and Unorthodox. Cheng is an expected, direct action. Ch’i is a highly creative, ‘left field’ or mysterious action. Sun Tzu used this as a way of describing styles of attack. You can use this idea to generate two different types of action. One can be a logical approach while the next could be an out of the ordinary, off-beat, creative, an unexpected approach. You should have both potential actions in your mind so that you can choose one or the other. In ancient Samurai duels, these ‘potentials’ were held simultaneously in the mind of the warrior. The ‘right’ action would emerge intuitively, instantly when needed, without conscious thought but the years of long practice (and failure) had to precede intuitive action. There was no other way. So be fluid, flow around obstacles with an off-beat action. The analogy often used here is to water, powerful but without shape. So, “Be like water”. Become a shapeshifter through continuous new action.

The pre-Socratic, Greek philosopher, Heraclitus is known for his thinking on change. He is as relevant today as he was in 500 BC. He said “No man ever steps in the same river twice. It is not the same river (it is always flowing) and he is not the same man (he is always changing)”. Yet we expect rigid, predictable outcomes?

In my experience, the hardest part in all this is taking continuous new action when things aren’t working out (as they almost never do, first, second or third time). This is where you need a method to stimulate continuity, or the next step. I use a book to record my expected outcome, actual outcome and next step. It’s pretty basic and you can evolve your own method but you need something to stimulate the next angle of attack or manoeuvre.

Some brainstorming, creative thinking, physical exercise or random writing may be required. Often the best ideas come from a random thought process in a fresh location. It also helps to take a short break or to do something enjoyable when things aren’t going according to plan. It’s just the way complexity works. Success is random. Keep going. The hard part is that the lessons might not unfold until sometime into the future.

No person can ever step in the same river twice. It is never the same river (it is always flowing) and we are never the same person (we are always changing)

So, in summary;

1. Have a purpose (think about it carefully as it is a guide).

2. Take the initiative.

3. Use ‘different’ actions (both orthodox and unorthodox) to uncover the environment and forces around us.

4. Be dynamic, take continuous action, don’t stop trying.

5. Be curious. Each action has learning. You may not see it immediately.

6. Realise there will be a lot of unexpected outcomes (or failures) as part of the process. It is the only way to understand, uncover and develop.

7. Try and do something enjoyable when the outcome isn’t as expected — give yourself a break. Don’t push hard all the time. There needs to be enjoyment and play in the situation. It’s a rhythm you need.

Good luck. The dynamic way of your life holds power within it.

Kris Vette is an Emerging Technology Strategist. He runs Chain Ecosystems, a consultancy that enables organisations to both understand and posture themselves for success in the age of networks.

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Kris Vette

Explaining how emerging technologies will integrate into society.